Seminar - Predictability of weather and climate

Speaker: Prof. Susanna Corti - Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (CNR-ISAC) | Tuesday 12 May 2026 | 4,30 p.m. - Arduino Classroom

12.05.2026

In this seminar, I will explore the concept of predictability in both weather and climate systems, with the aim of clarifying what can realistically be expected from climate predictions, as well as the limitations inherent to them. I will begin by presenting simulations of the mean global temperature evolution over the 20th century, using these as a basis to illustrate the capabilities and performance of current modelling approaches. A key part of the discussion will focus on the fundamental differences between weather forecasting and climate prediction, highlighting their distinct objectives, timescales, and sources of uncertainty. Building on this, I will examine projections of future climate change and provide an overview of recent developments in climate modelling. Finally, the seminar will address the theoretical underpinnings of predictability, including the roles of deterministic chaos, nonlinearity, and the existence of different flow regimes. These concepts are essential for understanding both the limits and the potential of predictive skill in weather and climate systems, and will serve to frame the broader discussion.